Crafty Fox Racing

Positive gallop reports in the racing press. Surely horses attracting these sorts of reviews from the experienced gallop watcher, looking at recent training spins, must be noted and the horse backed next time out.  Well, in my view, they should generally be avoided.

Why?

The first point is obvious.  If these horses are reported as being in good form by the widely read racing press, every serious bettor is going to be aware of this fact.  Everybody will want to be on the horse when it next turns out.  The price will shorten and in my view become artificially short.  The odds will build in the well known fact that the horse has been training well and the price will no longer be value.

Yes, a good percentage of these in form horses will win but at a price, which in the long run, will be prohibitive to a profitable betting strategy. 

There are other reasons why gallop reports should not be given too much credence as a vehicle towards betting success.  Horse gallops are only raining runs.  We simply do not know and we simply cannot tell how hard the work riding jockey has been asked to push his mount.  Has the trainer insisted upon maximum effort or is this just an easy loosening exercise?  Furthermore, horses generally have training gallops with other animals.  It is easy for one of those to look impressive or go clear if it is up against another animal that is is out of form or perhaps on an easy day. Only the trainer and jockey will know exactly the intention of the piece of training work being conducted today.

Having said all of the above, there are a couple of areas where, perhaps, and I admit to not being certain of this, gallop information can be of use.

Often the racig press will report a top jockey being on a horse for a training gallop. If this horse is known to be heading for a big race in the near future I would generally see this as a positive sign, especially if the top jockey is not retained by the stable concerned. The best jockeys generally have the pick of rides and if they are helping to prepare a horse for a big race this is probably an indication that connections feel that the animaal has a good chance.

The other possible area of profitability is to look at the number of times, irrespective of comments, that a horse appears in the gallop reports.  I have not fully researched this at this stage, but it seems to me that if a horse is out on the training gallops twice a week or more it must be in a reasonable state of fitness - the horse simply must be well and being primed to win in the near future in order to withstand this level of intense training.  Of course if one of these potentially very fit horses is spotted all the other usual considerations must be taken in to account before making a bet. At the very least, however, it is, in my view a positive sign.